52
Medium and Heavy Duty Auto Care Industry
The auto care industry’s medium and
heavy-duty segment includes parts,
accessories, non-warranty service
repair and maintenance for commercial,
industrial and agricultural vehicles falling
within weight classes four through
eight. Usage of these vehicles and their
demand for replacement parts is strongly
connected to the prosperity of the U.S.
economy. As demand for goods and
services grows, so does movement of
raw materials and finished goods; making
good on the old metaphor that over the
road commercial trucks are the lifeblood
carrying essentials of society along
America’s arteries.
In 2009, we recalibrated our predictive
index to more closely correlate to miles
driven for these classes of vehicles. The
resulting baseline revealed the close
correlation between medium and heavy-
duty auto care sales, miles traveled,
tonnage hauled, tires replaced and more.
The recession years of 2008 and 2009, as
well as the beginnings of recovery signaled
in 2010, reveal the correlations.
For 2011, the U.S. Department of
Transportation (DOT) updated its data
to be registrations-based and made
fleet-appropriate adjustments to its
vehicle classes. For continuity, DOT also
published corresponding historical data
updates. In this edition of the Factbook,
appropriate historical updates have been
applied where sales figures transitioned
to registration-based data and/or where
weight classes were recalibrated.
Our latest forecast for the period
from 2018 to 2021 correlates with the
continued economic recovery and
anticipates a growth trend that is also
predicted to benefit the light vehicle auto
care industry, as discussed
in earlier sections.
Medium and Heavy Duty Industry Sales
(Billions of Retail Dollars) $40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
2021* 2020* 2019* 2018* 2017# 2016# 2015# 2014# 2013# 2012 2011
$73.9
$78.9
$81.6
$84.4
$87.2
$90.2
$93.3
$96.4
$99.7
$103.1
$106.6
Note:
#
Estimate
* Forecast
Historical data have
been revised. Source:
Auto Care Association
Single Unit
(1)
and Combination
(2)
Truck Miles Driven,
2007–2016 (Millions of Miles) 304,178
310,680
288,005 286,585
267,207 268,318
275,018 279,132 279,844
287,895
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
$320,000
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Definitions:
(1) Single-Unit - single frame
trucks that have 2-Axles
and at least 6 tires or a
gross vehicle weight rating
exceeding 10,000 lbs.
(2) Combination Trucks - Prior
criteria used description:
“Heavy Duty Trucks” to
capture this class of vehicle.
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation / Highway Statistics $0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
Tire & Retread Sales
(left axis)
2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Tire Shipments
(right axis)
Sales (in Billions)
Shipments (in Millions)
12.5
15.5
14.3
15.3
14.8 14.9
15.6
14.8
19.2
16.7
$7.3 $7.4
$5.8
$6.9
$3.8 $3.4 $3.7 $3.6 $3.4 $3.2
$2.9
Note:
Historical data have
been revised.
The large shipment on
retread tires was due
to record demand for
such tires.
Sources:
Auto Care Association,
Modern Tire Dealer’s
January 2018 Facts
Issue
Sales and Shipments of Truck Replacement
Tire Retreads, 2007–2017
Truck Tonnage Analysis
(% change in 12 Month Moving Total campared to same month of previous year)
Sources:
Auto Care Industry Indicators
Report, American Trucking
Associations -11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
% Change in Truck Tonnage Index
1.6
2.2 2.3 2.0
2.5 2.4
2.8
1.9
1.5 1.4
0.8 0.6 0.7
0.5
2.4
3.5
1.2
2.3
2.0
2.4
1.7 2.1
1.5
1.8
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