2
Key Economic Indicators
2015 2016 2017 2018
2019
Estimate
CAGR
(2015-2018) Assessment
Gross Domestic Product and Components
Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Real$17,386.7$17,659.2$18,050.7$18,566.4$19,160.0 2.21%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Nominal$18,219.3$18,707.2$19,485.4$20,494.1$21,396.0 4.00%
Inflation Rate0.7%2.1%2.1%1.9%1.8%1.72%
U.S. National Debt (Nominal)$18,922.2$19,976.8$20,492.7$21,974.1$22,931.0 5.11%
U.S. National Debt as a Percent of GDP103.9%106.8%105.2%107.2%107.5%1.07%
Personal Consumption Expenditures$12,294.5$12,766.9$13,321.4$13,948.5$14,549.0 4.30%
Durable Goods$1,306.6$1,346.6$1,406.5$1,459.4$1,603.03.76%
Nondurable Goods$2,613.1$2,649.7$2,749.6$2,879.4$3,079.003.29%
Services$8,374.8$8,770.6$9,165.3$9,609.7$9,907.004.69%
Gross Private Domestic Investment$3,175.5$3,227.6$3,441.4$3,766.3$3,932.0 5.85%
Government Expenditures (Billions of Current Dollars)$4,050.2$4,199.7$4,347.7$4,564.1$4,764.9 4.06%
Trade Balance-$498.5-$502.0-$552.3-$622.1-$652.17.66%
Total Exports$2,266.7$2,215.8$2,351.1$2,500.8$2,660.8 3.33%
Total Imports$2,765.2$2,717.8$2,903.3$3,122.9$3,312.9 4.14%
Interest Rates (Change in points )
1
Prime Rate3.26%3.51%4.10%4.91%5.50%14.63%
Federal Funds Rate0.13%0.39%1.00%1.83%2.25%141.45%
Manufacturing Indicators
Industrial Production Indexes (2002 = 100)
1
Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing (average)124.8128.3126.5128.4131.10.95%
Tire Manufacturing (average, 2012 = 100) 96.7 90.0 87.4 86.3 88.3 -3.75%
Purchasing Managers Index (average)
2
51.4 51.5 57.5 58.8 59.8 4.59%
Consumer Information
Retail Sales (Billions of Current Dollars)
3
$4,726 $4,856 $5,074 $5,315 $5,549 4.00%
Disposable Personal Income (Billions of Current Dollars)$13,784.3$14,170.9$14,796.3$15,532.1$16,216.04.06%
Civilian Unemployment Rate (Change in points)
4
5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.6% -9.72%
Consumer Confidence Index (for December)
5
97.8 113.3 123.1 126.6 132 8.98%
Housing Starts (Thousands of Units)
3
1112 1174 1203 1243 1248 3.78%
Prices
4
Producer Price Indexes
Total Manufacturing (Dec. 1984 = 100) 185.5 181.9 188.3 196.7 201.1 1.97%
Diesel Fuel (June 1985 = 100) 181.3 143.5 185.7 247.7 252.9 10.96%
Consumer Price Indexes (1982-84 = 100)
All Items237.0240.0245.1251.1255.91.94%
Motor Vehicle Parts and Equipment144.2143.6143.0143.7146.7-0.13%
Exchange Rates (Units per U.S. Dollar)
1
Broad Index (Jan. 1997 = 100) 117.04 122.45 122.10 122.91 122.80 1.64%
Canada Dollar1.281.321.301.301.350.43%
China Yuan6.286.646.766.616.801.70%
European Union Euro (U.S. Dollars per Currency Unit)1.111.111.131.181.122.12%
Japan Yen121.05108.66112.10110.40109.76-3.02%
Mexico Peso15.8718.6718.8819.2219.286.58%
Key Economic Indicators (billions of chained 2012 dollars adjusted for inflation, unless otherwise noted)
Notes: n/a = not available. Historical data have been revised. = Favorable condition for motor vehicle aftermarket
= Indeterminate trend - should monitor = Unfavorable condition for motor vehicle aftermarket
Sources: Auto Care Association’s Industry Indicators Report, U.S. Department of Commerce
1
Federal Reserve Board 4
U.S. Department of Labor
2
Institute for Supply Management 5
The Conference Board
3
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. nominal gross domestic product (GDP) should total $21.4 trillion in 2019 complimenting a 4.0% compounded annual growth rate
(CAGR) from 2015–2018, with estimated real growth in 2019 surpassing $19 trillion. Since the economic recovery began in 2009, the
U.S. economy has realized favorable changes in key economic data noted in the chart below. Some of the most notable changes in the
four-year compounded growth rates occurred in durable goods orders (3.76%), retail sales (4.00%) and disposable income (4.06%).
The U.S. dollar in 2018 increased favorably against most of the major currencies and is expected to remain strong in 2019. The
U.S. national debt continues to grow and presents a burden to the U.S. taxpayers and hinders economic growth. A strengthening
U.S. dollar in the second half of 2018 and into 2019 reduces the cost of foreign imports ranging from oil and steel to minerals and
automobiles. However, a more valuable U.S. dollar means that many U.S. exports will cost more to purchase. Consumer confidence
is expected to continue trending upward in 2019, from its Great Recession low of below 50 in 2009. Ongoing uncertainty in the
marketplace with trade policy and import tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, affecting both consumers and producers.
This summary was prepared by Dr. Timothy G. Nash, senior vice president and director, McNair Center at Northwood University.
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